Writing Competition: Universe of Threats--Natural Disaster Threat Contest

Universe of Threats – Natural Disaster Threat Contest

(open Dec. 1, 2023 – Jan. 31, 2024)

The Center for Advanced Preparedness and Threat Response Simulation (CAPTRS) is building a catalog of threats, called the “Universe of Threats,” which will be used to prepare decision makers for future threats. Our third essay contest to add to the Universe of Threats will focus on natural disaster threats.

We invite you to submit your story and a one page ground truth document (see examples below) describing a threat scenario related to natural disasters, including floods, wildfires, hurricanes or another natural disaster of your choosing. Judges will be looking for unique but plausible threat scenarios, as well as clearly defined and complex cascading impacts of the threat.

Submission Details

Your ground truth should include details and origin of the threat, other impacting factors, and considerations for the unfolding response which may not be explicitly stated in your essay. Your ground truth should provide stated facts and details of the threat, whereas your story should be a narrative building off of the information outlined in your ground truth. 

 

Please be specific as to what the threat is. For instance, a category 4 hurricane should be expanded upon to mention specific threatening aspects of the storm, or why where it is hitting is going to create bigger problems. The impact of the threat and what needs to be considered in addressing it is critically important. A doomsday scenario without any possible solutions is not what we are looking for. If you choose to focus on a threat related to climate change, please make sure you are thoroughly explaining the actual events taking place due to climate change, and the impacts of those events, versus focusing on the root cause of the threat. These situations will be used in threat preparedness exercises, so our focus is on how we can better prepare for threats.

Scenarios must be plausible and may explore interdependent social, economic, political, environmental or technological forces that shape the unfolding threat. We face a number of natural disaster threats every year. Please do not write about a scenario which has already happened.

 

We are looking for unique scenarios. The scenario may focus on evacuation and safety, or on unfolding and/or long-lasting impacts from the threat.

 

You may optionally submit one of the following documents to support the plausibility of the scenario: 

 

a one-page description of background research, 

a one-page list of references, 

or a one-page letter of support from an expert in the field.

 
First place – $5,000
Second place – $2,500 (up to 2 winners)
Third place – $1,000 (up to 5 winners)
**All winning submissions will be published on the CAPTRS website.

Judging:

Contributions will be judged anonymously by a panel of CAPTRS team members and guest judges, composed of experts in relevant disciplinary fields. All decisions made by the panel will be final.

Submissions will be evaluated holistically, with particular attending to the following dimensions: 

• Overall creativity – we are looking for scenarios that challenge our preparedness paradigm

• Plausibility and specificity of the threat

• Complexity and plausibility of the cascading societal factors

• Level of difficulty posed for current response capabilities

• Consistency with the submitted ground truth characteristics

• Quality of writing

 More information, link to apply, and examples here.